Sheri Berman · Dissent, Winter 2018 · ~5 min visual read

Is liberal democracy dying of too much democracy — or too little?

Many commentators blame “the people” for today’s democratic crisis. Berman argues the opposite: history shows democracy and liberalism grow up together, and today’s populist revolt is a symptom of citizens being shut out — not let in too far.

LiberalismDemocracy

Five terms, before the argument

  • Liberalism

    Rule of law, individual and minority rights, limits on state power.

  • Democracy

    Popular rule: elections, participation, responsiveness to citizens.

  • Illiberal democracy

    Elections without liberal protections (Fareed Zakaria, 1997).

  • Sequencing thesis

    Liberalism must be established before democracy, or democratization goes wrong.

  • Technocracy

    Moving decisions to experts insulated from voters (central banks, EU institutions).

!WarningNOSEFIIEUKDKNLDEPLFRCHATHUROPTESITBGGRTRsliding toward illiberalismpopulists risingStylized map, not to scale

Democracies are backsliding — and many blame the people.

Poland, Hungary and Turkey have slid toward illiberalism; in the West, populist parties with uncertain liberal commitments are rising. Yascha MounkPolitical scientist; writes on the “deconsolidation” of democracy. and Roberto FoaPolitical scientist; Mounk’s co-author on democratic deconsolidation. warn of terminal decline. The question: what caused this, and what is the cure?

“the warning signs are flashing red”
— Mounk and Foa, quoted by Berman
PlatoAristotleTocquevilleMillOrtega y GassetZakariaLiberalismDemocracythe “right” order“too democratic”

The fear of “the mob” is as old as democracy itself.

From Plato and Aristotle to Tocqueville and Mill’s “tyranny of the majority,” elites have feared unchecked popular rule. Today this fear takes two forms:

(a) Sequencing

ZakariaFareed Zakaria, journalist; coined “illiberal democracy” in a 1997 essay.; Snyder & MansfieldJack Snyder and Edward Mansfield, political scientists who study democratization and conflict.: democratizing before liberalism is rooted unleashes illiberalism and conflict.

“Democracy is flourishing… liberalism is not.”
— Fareed Zakaria

(b) Hyperdemocracy

Andrew SullivanCommentator; wrote a 2016 New York magazine essay on “hyperdemocratic times”.: the passions of the crowd now run unchecked.

“Democracies end when they are too democratic.”
— Andrew Sullivan (essay title)
LiberalismDemocracyStage, not endpointToo little democracy,not too much

Both claims are wrong.

Historically, illiberal democracy was a stage, not a destination: failed democratic experiments taught societies to value liberal institutions. And the West’s current trouble stems not from hyperdemocracy but from elites and institutions that have become insulated from the people.

“a stage on the route to liberal democracy rather than the end point”
— Sheri Berman
Illustrative trajectory, not data1789Revolution1793Terror20–40k executed1815Restoration1830 · 1848Revolts1851Louis-Napoleon1871Commune1870sThird Republic1940Fallpost-1945Stable democracyWhat each collapse left behindequality before the lawcitizens, not estatesconstitution

Failed democracies still dismantle the old regime.

France’s first democracy collapsed into the Terror; later attempts fell to restored kings, a populist dictator and war. Yet each attempt destroyed feudal privilege, spread equality before the law and the idea of a nation of equal citizens. Liberal democracy finally stuck after 1945 — built on the lessons of earlier failures.

  1. 1789 Revolution
  2. 1793 Terror (20–40k executed)
  3. 1815 Restoration, under a constitution
  4. 1830 · 1848 Revolts
  5. 1851 Louis-Napoleon
  6. 1871 Commune
  7. 1870s Third Republic
  8. 1940 Fall
  9. post-1945 Stable democracy
Old regimedivisionscorruptionradical nationalism“enemies of the state”falsified war blameNew democracy

Weimar and interwar Italy inherited their poison from the regimes before them.

Italy’s liberal elites ruled through corruption and exclusion, leaving north/south, secular/religious and insider/outsider divides to explode once democracy arrived — then fascism (1922). In Germany, BismarckOtto von Bismarck, first chancellor of unified Germany. (chancellor 1871–1890) ruled by dividing and demonizing socialists and Catholics as “enemies of the state.” Weimar inherited a fractured society and collapsed in 1933.

liberal rights

Liberalism without democracy was thin liberalism.

Britain, the supposed model of liberalism first, was until the early 20th century an Anglican landed oligarchy: rotten boroughs, Catholics and the Irish oppressed, workers barred from voting and organizing. In the US, rights covered white men only; the South was an oligarchy. Rights reached everyone only as democratization widened.

Franchise extensions

The Civil War

Civil rights

EU technocratsElectoral CollegemoneygerrymanderingElitesCitizensdistance
  • 28%of Americans think the next generation will be better offPew, 2017
  • 19%think government is run “for the benefit of all”2015 survey
  • Members of both US parties see the other as “immoral” or “threatening”2016 study

The West suffers from a democratic deficit, not an excess.

Citizens see elites as distant and unresponsive. In Europe, mass parties hollowed out, politicians come from narrow elite milieus, and crisis policy moved to unelected EU bodies: a technocratic government replaced an elected one in Italy; Greece was forced to break promises to its voters. In the US: Electoral College, Senate malapportionment, gerrymandering, voter restrictions, money in politics.

Democracynext ideaPolicyvoted outSELLTechnocracyPolicystill runningSELL

Voters can “sell” bad ideas. Technocracy takes that option away.

Political economists Matthias MatthijsPolitical economist who studies the euro crisis and EU governance. and Mark BlythPolitical economist; author of work on austerity and economic ideas. compare voting to a put option: citizens give a party’s ideas a chance but keep the right to dump them at the next election. Unelected technocrats face no such check — and their authority rests on being seen as right, so they keep bad policies running.

DemocracyLiberalismInsulatedecisions ↑Citizens feelignored ↑Populismgrows ↑Elites demandmore insulation ↑

Technocracy and populism are “evil political twins.”

Alan BlinderEconomist and former Federal Reserve vice chair; wrote “Is Government Too Political?” (1997). (1997) urged moving more decisions to insulated experts, like the Fed or ECB. Berman objects: insulated experts handled recent crises poorly, and insulation breeds the resentment that fuels populism. Technocracy limits democracy to save liberalism; populism limits liberalism to save democracy. Each feeds the other.

Insulatedecisions ↑Citizens feelignored ↑Populismgrows ↑Elites demandmore insulation ↑liberal democracy

Revitalize democracy; don’t restrict it.

The cure for illiberal democracy is not less democracy but more: greater participation by citizens and greater responsiveness from elites and governments. If that happens, today’s malaise may prove a passing phase. If not, Berman warns, Western liberal democracy may indeed be in peril.

Discussion — not Berman’s argument

Read critically

Survivorship bias?
The European cases all ended in liberal democracy; what about those that didn’t?
Stage or endpoint?
Does “stage, not endpoint” hold for Hungary or Turkey, where illiberal rule is being entrenched, not outgrown?
Input vs. output legitimacy
Defenders of EU technocracy (drawing on ScharpfFritz Scharpf, political scientist; distinguished input from output legitimacy.’s distinction) argue institutions can be legitimate through results, not only through votes.
Partisan counterfactuals
The Electoral College and Senate argument rests on contestable counterfactuals.
Dated
Written in 2018 — how does it read after later elections and crises?